Even though Bitcoin doubled last year, peaking at more than $108,246 a unit, the average investor’s return was only about 40%.
Bitcoin (BTC) has more than doubled in price in 2024. However, according to a recent report from CoinDesk , investors who bought the world’s largest cryptocurrency have only made a fraction of that on average, in real terms.
The strike price is the price calculated when Bitcoins last moved on the chain. It is considered the average cost that investors paid to buy. Last year, the strike price of BTC was around $65,901. With the market price closing around $93,000, those who bought the cryptocurrency are sitting on an unrealized profit of around 40%.
Tracking actual prices is important to understand the overall profit or loss and cost basis of each market participant. US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs launched earlier this year, so this is also a good estimate of their returns .
BTC’s actual price also indicates where the local bottom is when it drops. Market history shows that the cryptocurrency rarely falls below its average actual price for the previous year.
Bitcoin has been continuously setting new price peaks in March 2024 (higher than $73,750) when the US-approved spot ETFs helped to unblock capital flows from leading financial institutions. However, the world’s largest cryptocurrency had to spend about half of 2024 “stuck” in a sideways direction. It was not until the victory of Donald Trump – a candidate supporting cryptocurrency – that the market was excited. Bitcoin skyrocketed to a record of more than $108,246 on December 17.
In the last days of the year, this cryptocurrency fell below the important price zone, at times slipping below the 92,000 USD mark per coin. Bitcoin just returned to the hundred thousand USD mark last night, then traded around the 102,000 USD area for most of the session on January 7. However, by this morning (Hanoi time), the market price had fallen back to around 97,000 USD per coin.
Looking ahead, analysts largely predict a significant increase in BTC price in 2025. Tom Lee, co-founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors, estimates that the world’s largest cryptocurrency will reach $250,000 thanks to the potential of spot ETFs and political changes in the US under President Trump.
Bitwise Asset Management predicts that Bitcoin could hit $200,000 this year. Market catalysts cited include improved institutional investment, regulation, and a tightening supply due to the “Bitcoin halving” which will cut the reward for miners in half. However, the investment advisory firm notes that the market could face headwinds such as government sell-offs or investor frustration with BTC’s volatility.
As more institutional investors add Bitcoin to their portfolios, the cryptocurrency is increasingly becoming a hedge against traditional market risks. This growing acceptance by major financial firms supports bullish price predictions. Some funds even recommend allocating 1-5% of their portfolios to BTC.
Matt Higgins, a venture capitalist, suggests that countries could start adopting strategic Bitcoin reserves by 2025. Higgins estimates that if 1 million BTC were transferred to national reserves, the circulating supply would drop by 6.6% and drive a price increase of more than 30%.
In Vietnam, according to a survey looking back at the 2024 market by the Coin68 platform with more than 2,700 people, nearly 44% of respondents still said they were losing money. Recently, the market has recorded many cases of “burning” accounts due to uncontrolled derivatives trading.
